Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156NrecessionFree tier
| Series ID | RECPROUSM156N |
|---|---|
| Units | Percent |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Category | recession |
| Latest observation | 2026-08-01 |
| History | Point-in-time: every value as first published plus each revision, so backtests see only what was known on the day |
Latest reading
The latest Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities observation, for 2026-08-01, is 0.62 Percent, up from 0.24 for 2026-07-01. It has not been revised since it was first published. 88.3% of observations in this history were revised after first release.
| Latest observation | 2026-08-01 |
|---|---|
| Latest value | 0.62 Percent |
| Previous | 0.24 (2026-07-01) |
| Change | 0.38 (+158.3%) |
| First published value | 0.62 |
| Last release | 2026-10-01 |
| Vintages stored | 167 |
| Observations | 715 |
| Largest revision (5 years) | 2021-09-01: 44.4 → 1.34 |
Get it in Python
import finzdata as yf
df = yf.Client().macro("RECPROUSM156N")
df.tail()Or chart it live on FinzData Explore.
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