Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate
RECRISKUSP50recessionFree tier
| Series ID | RECRISKUSP50 |
|---|---|
| Units | Percent |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Category | recession |
| Latest observation | 2026-09-01 |
| History | Point-in-time: every value as first published plus each revision, so backtests see only what was known on the day |
Latest reading
The latest Recession Probability for the United States, Median Estimate observation, for 2026-09-01, is 0.085 Percent, up from 0.0802 for 2026-08-01. It has not been revised since it was first published. 94.7% of observations in this history were revised after first release.
| Latest observation | 2026-09-01 |
|---|---|
| Latest value | 0.085 Percent |
| Previous | 0.0802 (2026-08-01) |
| Change | 0.0048 (+6.0%) |
| First published value | 0.085 |
| Last release | 2026-10-01 |
| Vintages stored | 3 |
| Observations | 561 |
| Largest revision (5 years) | 2023-02-01: 4.0174 → 3.8687 |
Get it in Python
import finzdata as yf
df = yf.Client().macro("RECRISKUSP50")
df.tail()Or chart it live on FinzData Explore.
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